Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 35.053502 37.819582 40.846486 44.433065 48.605049 53.353914 5.924135e+01
2025-08-31 30.841964 34.409510 38.559858 43.836480 50.509090 58.882273 7.057343e+01
2025-09-07 29.059899 33.156937 38.127511 44.775706 53.735746 65.912212 8.481952e+01
2025-09-14 27.201395 31.522315 36.921651 44.415353 55.016792 70.378137 9.653848e+01
2025-09-21 25.472519 29.851552 35.442817 43.420894 55.139450 73.023983 1.060126e+02
2025-09-28 24.005164 28.383687 34.071871 42.374331 54.960111 75.056711 1.149628e+02
2025-10-05 23.648796 28.321571 34.545981 43.941036 58.884761 84.529113 1.423318e+02
2025-10-12 23.116665 27.972086 34.573842 44.822891 61.819739 92.972006 1.727323e+02
2025-10-19 22.522341 27.489774 34.361854 45.292507 64.103809 100.759554 2.077096e+02
2025-10-26 21.866946 26.878253 33.910134 45.323398 65.597460 107.324010 2.457752e+02
2025-11-02 21.063315 26.013728 33.027455 44.570753 65.537033 110.438632 2.754245e+02
2025-11-09 20.243969 25.088832 32.001790 43.497211 64.728805 111.616056 2.990897e+02
2025-11-16 19.544597 24.328291 31.215345 42.819392 64.720704 115.100384 3.425298e+02
2025-11-23 18.902848 23.625695 30.482416 42.180096 64.722389 118.714049 3.969391e+02
2025-11-30 18.674640 23.510225 30.636571 43.071344 67.974729 132.465140 5.816556e+02
2025-12-07 18.183898 22.985189 30.120749 42.732314 68.562226 138.713662 7.506867e+02
2025-12-14 17.596636 22.294477 29.310135 41.802270 67.726457 140.187818 8.802549e+02
2025-12-21 17.034203 21.622155 28.500458 40.821977 66.668577 140.665310 1.016845e+03
2025-12-28 17.019968 21.768799 29.002837 42.288982 71.456510 164.334178 3.147558e+03
2026-01-04 16.871767 21.704479 29.157017 43.113595 74.895357 185.865698 1.480868e+06
2026-01-11 16.656375 21.527646 29.114659 43.552403 77.460354 206.090191 NaN
2026-01-18 16.377152 21.241548 28.875207 43.581259 78.964063 222.735224 NaN
2026-01-25 15.981834 20.762557 28.291119 42.877905 78.376163 227.558341 NaN